DHJ Quick Take: The Scramble Effect
- Downstream Gravity: Andraya Carter’s most compelling point is that Azzi Fudd’s value isn’t just in the shots she makes, but the driving lanes she creates. By forcing defenders to stay home on the perimeter, she prevents help-side defense from collapsing on Paige Bueckers or Arike Ogunbowale.
- Attacking the Closeout: While labeled a “shooter,” Fudd’s 84th-percentile pick-and-roll efficiency (0.906 PPP) confirms Carter’s observation that she can punish aggressive closeouts. If a defender over-rotates, Fudd has the mid-range poise to make them pay.
- The Fernandez Connection: Having coached against Fudd in the Big East, Jose Fernandez knows that her 98th-percentile three-point efficiency is the perfect engine for his motion-heavy system. For a team that ranked dead last in 3PT attempts (21.6), she is the ultimate “plug-and-play” solution.
- Chemistry as a Buffer: In a league where the transition from college to the pros is notoriously difficult, the Bueckers-Fudd shorthand provides a “chemistry buffer.” This pre-existing trust allows Fernandez to implement complex off-ball actions much faster than with a brand-new backcourt pairing.
ARLINGTON, Texas — Andraya Carter didn’t need much time to form an opinion on whether Azzi Fudd belongs at the top of Monday’s 2026 WNBA Draft.
The ESPN analyst was asked a simple question ahead of tonight’s draft at The Shed at Hudson Yards in New York City: could the UConn guard be picked No. 1 overall by the Dallas Wings?
“Yeah, of course,” Carter told USA TODAY Sports. “Why not?”
When going into more detail, Carter explained exactly what makes Fudd’s skill set so difficult to pass on at the top of the board.
“She’s a specialist when it comes to being a shooter — the ability to hit shots, the ability to space the floor,” Carter said. “There’s so many things that when you have a floor spacer, just that skill set alone is an amazing opportunity to have success at the WNBA level. Even on nights if she’s not hitting 3-pointers, she can attack long closeouts, which puts the defense in scramble mode. When the defense is in scramble mode, somebody’s going to be open.”
What a Floor Spacer Like Azzi Fudd Unlocks
Carter’s point isn’t simply that Fudd can shoot — it’s about the trickle effect of having a shooter of her caliber on the floor alongside Paige Bueckers and Arike Ogunbowale. Defenses that load up on Bueckers’ pick-and-roll or Ogunbowale’s drives create open looks for Fudd. Defenses that respect Fudd open driving lanes for Bueckers and Ogunbowale.
The math compounds in a way that benefits everyone on the floor simultaneously.
Carter specifically mentioned attacking long closeouts as an underrated dimension of Fudd’s game — and the Synergy Sports data gives that observation real teeth.
When defenders close out aggressively, Fudd has the footwork and shot-making ability to make them pay regardless. Her spot-up PPP registered at 1.210 — 97th percentile, rated Excellent by Synergy Sports — and her guarded catch-and-shoot mark came in at 1.21 at the 94th percentile, meaning contested looks don’t meaningfully change her efficiency.
When a defense scrambles to recover, Fudd can take contested shots, but also counter by using a shot fake and reload behind the 3-point line or attack the closeout to make a readout of advantage basketball to continue the momentum by either drawing help and making the right play, or finishing at the rim, taking a floater, or pulling up in mid-range.
That is the full package Carter is describing — not just a shooter standing in a corner, but a player who turns defensive aggression into an advantage.
The broader shooting numbers are equally striking. Fudd shot 44.5% from three on 263 attempts last season — 98th percentile by Synergy, rated Excellent. She nearly posted a 50-40-90 season, shooting 48.1% from the floor, 44.7% from three, and 95.5% from the free-throw line while averaging 17.3 points and 3.1 assists per game.
Andraya Carter on Jose Fernandez and the Chemistry Factor
Carter also addressed what a Fudd selection would mean specifically for first-year head coach Jose Fernandez, who spent years competing against UConn in the Big East at USF and knows Fudd’s game intimately.
“I’m interested in what Jose’s going to be able to do in Dallas,” Carter said. “Obviously, Paige and Azzi have played together before, so you trust that chemistry on the court. I think any system that he tries to put in place, having a knockout 3-point shooter would be helpful.”
That chemistry argument has real weight. Bueckers spoke about the possibility of a Fudd reunion at USA Basketball mini-camp in Phoenix earlier this month, saying the two have “a lot of games together under our belt” and that “there’s great success in that.” Fernandez’s offensive system — built around constant motion, off-ball actions, and three-point volume — is designed around exactly the type of shooter Carter is endorsing.
Dallas ranked last in the league in three-point attempts last season, averaging 21.6 per game, while converting at 30.4%. The system needs a shooter. The coach knows the shooter. The franchise cornerstone has already played with the shooter.
The Industry Is Catching Up
Carter’s “why not” response at the Final Four has since become the majority view heading into tonight. ESPN landed on Fudd at No. 1 in its final mock draft published Monday, returning to the UConn guard after briefly projecting Olivia Miles at the top spot last week.
Dallas Hoops Journal projects Fudd at No. 1 in its final mock as well. FanDuel Sportsbook lists her at -450 to go No. 1 overall — an implied probability of roughly 82% — with Awa Fam the distant second choice at +550. The Athletic remains the outlier, projecting Miles at the top.
The 2026 WNBA Draft broadcast will begin at 6 p.m. CT on ESPN from The Shed at Hudson Yards in New York City.
More Wings & WNBA Coverage on Dallas Hoops Journal
- Rebecca Lobo On Azzi Fudd Going No. 1 To Dallas Wings: ‘She Has WNBA All-Star Potential As A Rookie’
- Evaluating Top Options For Dallas Wings At No. 1 Overall In 2026 WNBA Draft
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- ‘Positioned To Be Very Aggressive’: How Dallas Wings Executed Curt Miller’s Vision Laid For Offseason Moves
- ‘Our Top Target’: Dallas Wings Sign Reigning WNBA Co-Defensive Player Of The Year Alanna Smith To Three-Year Max Deal
- ‘A Huge Priority’: Curt Miller Details Why Dallas Wings Brought Back Center Awak Kuier
- Curt Miller Praises Arike Ogunbowale’s ‘Undeniable’ Commitment To Dallas Wings, Details Re-Signing All-Time Scoring Leader
- ‘High Basketball IQ’: Curt Miller Details Why Jessica Shepard Was A Free-Agent Priority For The Dallas Wings
- Olivia Miles On Possibly Playing With Paige Bueckers: ‘We’d Light The League On Fire’
