DHJ Quick Take: The Final Consensus
- The Fit Over Height: ESPN’s pivot back to Azzi Fudd mirrors the betting market’s confidence. By addressing the frontcourt in free agency with Alanna Smith and Jessica Shepard, the Wings have cleared the runway to draft the best shooter in the class to fix their league-worst perimeter volume.
- Elite Gravity: Despite a tough shooting stretch in Phoenix, Fudd’s career 42.2% mark from deep is the gold standard. Her 1.210 PPP in spot-up situations (97th percentile) is the exact “release valve” Arike Ogunbowale and Paige Bueckers need when defenses collapse.
- More Than a Shooter: ESPN’s report and Synergy Sports data both highlight Fudd’s 84th-percentile pick-and-roll efficiency. She isn’t just a floor spacer; she’s a secondary playmaker who can punish teams that over-commit to the Wings‘ other stars.
- The Final Countdown: With ESPN, FanDuel (-450), and Dallas Hoops Journal all aligned on Fudd, The Athletic stands as the lone major outlet holding out for Olivia Miles. The drama in Arlington tonight is no longer about the position but the official confirmation of the UConn reunion.
ARLINGTON, Texas — ESPN has settled on Azzi Fudd as its final projection for the Dallas Wings at No. 1 overall in the 2026 WNBA Draft — the outlet’s third different top pick this cycle.
In its final mock draft published Monday, ESPN’s Michael Voepel returned to Fudd after projecting Olivia Miles at No. 1 last week, citing the Wings’ active free agency as the deciding factor.
“With Fudd being an elite 3-point shooter, plus her growth as a defender, she should fit well with the Wings,” Voepel wrote.
Why Free Agency Changed the Calculus
The move makes sense in context. Dallas re-signed Arike Ogunbowale, added Alanna Smith and Jessica Shepard to the frontcourt, brought back Awak Kuier, and retained Li Yueru — addressing interior needs before the draft even began. With frontcourt depth no longer the most pressing concern, the Wings’ most glaring remaining weakness entering tonight is perimeter shooting. Fudd addresses that as well as anyone in this class.
The Dallas Wings ranked last in the league in three-point attempts last season, launching just 21.6 per game while connecting at 30.4%. The league-leading Minnesota Lynx attempted 25.4 threes per game and converted at 37.8%. That gap in volume and efficiency is significant. Adding Fudd is the most direct path to closing it on day one.
What Azzi Fudd Brings
ESPN noted that Fudd struggled in the latter stages of this year’s NCAA Tournament — shooting 12-of-39 over her final three games, including 3-of-15 in UConn’s national semifinal loss to South Carolina. But the outlet emphasized that her quick release and footwork give her shooting profile strong professional translation, and her career 42.2% mark from three across four seasons at UConn reflects sustained excellence rather than a single hot stretch.
The Synergy Sports data reinforces that. Fudd posted a 1.210 points per possession mark in spot-up situations last season — 97th percentile, rated Excellent. Her off-screen efficiency came in at 1.150 PPP at the 90th percentile, and her guarded catch-and-shoot PPP registered at 1.21 — 94th percentile — meaning she doesn’t need a clean look to be a threat. Teams can run her off staggers, flares, floppy actions, and pin-ins. She shot 44.5% from three on 263 attempts last season, rated Excellent at the 98th percentile by Synergy.
Her pick-and-roll ball-handler numbers add another dimension often overlooked in the shooting-first conversation. Fudd logged 117 pick-and-roll possessions last season at 0.906 PPP overall — 84th percentile, Excellent — including a 1.037 PPP mark at the 93rd percentile when defenses committed hard. She is more than a spot-up shooter. She is a complete perimeter threat.
How the Rest of the Top Four Falls
ESPN projects Olivia Miles to fall to the Minnesota Lynx at No. 2 — a natural fit given Minnesota’s frontcourt losses in free agency freed up space for a playmaking guard. Awa Fam lands with the Seattle Storm at No. 3, and Lauren Betts goes to the Washington Mystics at No. 4.
The projection aligns with the current FanDuel betting market, which has Fudd listed at -450 to go No. 1 overall — an implied probability of roughly 82%. Dallas Hoops Journal also projects Fudd at No. 1 in its final mock draft. The Athletic is the notable outlier, projecting Miles at the top spot.
The 2026 WNBA Draft tips off tonight at 6 p.m. CT on ESPN from The Shed at Hudson Yards in New York City.
More Wings & WNBA Coverage on Dallas Hoops Journal
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- Paige Bueckers On Possibly Playing With Azzi Fudd Again: ‘There’s Great Success In That’
- 2026 WNBA Mock Draft: Dallas Wings Go Guard, Select Azzi Fudd No. 1 Overall
- Evaluating Top Options For Dallas Wings At No. 1 Overall In 2026 WNBA Draft
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- ‘Our Top Target’: Dallas Wings Sign Reigning WNBA Co-Defensive Player Of The Year Alanna Smith To Three-Year Max Deal
- ‘A Huge Priority’: Curt Miller Details Why Dallas Wings Brought Back Center Awak Kuier
- Curt Miller Praises Arike Ogunbowale’s ‘Undeniable’ Commitment To Dallas Wings, Details Re-Signing All-Time Scoring Leader
- ‘High Basketball IQ’: Curt Miller Details Why Jessica Shepard Was A Free-Agent Priority For The Dallas Wings
