NBA Draft Lottery Odds: Where the Dallas Mavericks Could Pick and How Likely Each Spot Is
The Dallas Mavericks have never moved up in the NBA Draft Lottery. On Monday night, they’ll hope to change that.
Armed with just a 1.8% chance at the No. 1 overall pick, the Mavericks enter the 2025 NBA Draft Lottery with modest expectations—and maybe, just maybe, a longshot hope of hearing their name earlier than expected when the ping-pong balls are drawn.
The lottery will be held Monday, May 12, at 6 p.m. CT on ESPN, live from Chicago. Franchise legend Rolando Blackman will represent the Mavericks on the broadcast. Another representative will be in the lottery drawing room, where the results are finalized in advance under the supervision of NBA officials, media, and the accounting firm Ernst & Young.
Slim Odds, Slight Edge
Dallas finished the regular season with a 39-43 record, tying the Chicago Bulls for the NBA’s 11th-worst mark. A random tiebreaker gave the Mavericks a slight advantage in lottery positioning, granting them the 11th-best odds.
Here are the Mavericks’ odds of landing each pick:
- No. 1 pick: 1.8%
- No. 2 pick: 2.0%
- No. 3 pick: 2.2%
- No. 4 pick: 2.5%
- No. 11 pick: 77.6%
- No. 12 pick: 13.5%
There is zero probability of the Mavericks landing any selection outside of those six options.
While a top-four jump is statistically unlikely, the mere possibility adds intrigue to Monday’s event. Dallas has participated in the lottery 16 times and has never moved up. They’ve historically picked where expected or slid, with some infamous selections along the way—Cherokee Parks (1995), Etan Thomas (2000), and Randy White (1989) among them.
Their most notable modern lottery memory? Trading up for Luka Dončić in 2018, acquiring the draft rights to the Slovenian superstar from Atlanta in exchange for Trae Young and a future first-round pick. The team narrowly held onto its top-10 protected pick in 2023, selecting Dereck Lively II 10th overall after a tense lottery night.
History Isn’t on Dallas’ Side—But What If?
Landing the No. 1 pick would be historic for Dallas. Not only would it mark the first time the franchise has jumped up in the lottery, but it would also open the door to select the presumed top prize: Duke phenom Cooper Flagg.
Flagg, a 6-foot-9 forward from Maine, averaged 19.2 points, 7.5 rebounds, and 4.2 assists in his freshman season at Duke. With elite two-way potential, Flagg is widely projected to go first overall in June’s draft.
The 2025 NBA Draft is scheduled for Wednesday, June 25, at Barclays Center in Brooklyn. Barring a miracle, Dallas will be selecting 11th or 12th, looking for complementary talent to support its core led by Anthony Davis and Kyrie Irving and the newly reshaped post-Dončić roster.
But if the ping-pong balls fall the right way Monday night?
Maybe, finally, Dallas gets its lottery moment.
More Dallas Mavericks Articles
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- “I Would Like to See Kyrie at a Game”: Paige Bueckers Hopes to Share Dallas Stage With Kyrie Irving
- Kyrie Irving Dissects Anthony Edwards’ Film From Lakers-Timberwolves Series
- Inside Nico Harrison’s Takeover of the Dallas Mavericks and the Luka Dončić Trade
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