Mavericks’ NBA Cup Knockout Hopes Ride on Crucial Matchup Against Grizzlies

A win would almost certainly secure the Mavericks a spot in the knockout stage, but a loss would complicate their path, leaving tiebreakers and external results to decide their destiny.

Understanding the NBA Cup

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Introduced last season, the NBA Cup adds competitive intrigue to the early part of the schedule. The tournament consists of two phases: Group Play and the Knockout Rounds.

Group Play: Based on prior-season records, teams were divided into six groups of five. Each team plays four games against the other members of its group, two at home and two on the road. These games, played on “Cup Nights” (Tuesdays and Fridays), count toward the regular-season standings.

Knockout Rounds: The top team from each group and one wild-card team from each conference advance to single-elimination games, culminating in the Semifinals and Championship at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Dec. 14 and Dec. 17, respectively. Tiebreakers, such as point differential, determine which wild-card teams advance.

Mavericks’ Position Heading into Tuesday

The Mavericks are 2-1 in Group C, with a league-best +41 point differential. Golden State (3-0) has already clinched the group title, leaving Dallas as the front-runner for the Western Conference’s wild-card spot. Phoenix (+19) and Oklahoma City (+18) trail far behind in point differential, giving Dallas the edge heading into Tuesday’s games.

“We’re taking it to each team each and every night,” P.J. Washington said. “And we’re just absolutely excited we got a win [Friday]. We’re trying to go to Vegas.”

Washington also emphasized the added significance of the tournament for the Mavericks. “It’s huge,” he said. “At the end of the day it gives us something to play for early in the season. I think guys are excited about it, and we know every game matters.”

Momentum from Portland Win

The Mavericks are coming off a gritty 137-131 victory over the Portland Trail Blazers, where Luka Dončić made a triumphant return after missing five games with a wrist injury. Dončić delivered a masterful performance, recording 36 points, 13 assists, 7 rebounds, and 3 steals to help Dallas extend its winning streak to four games.

“It’s not 100 percent, but it’s good enough to play,” Dončić said of his wrist. “I was just happy to be back and help the team get the win.”

Quentin Grimes stepped up with a season-high 28 points, while Spencer Dinwiddie and Washington each made key contributions late in the game. Despite being shorthanded, six players scored in double-figures, with Dinwiddie adding 20 points and 5 assists, while Washington chipped in 14 points and 6 assists. Daniel Gafford added 19 points and 4 rebounds in Dereck Lively II’s absence. Dallas continued its success after going 4-1 in five games without Dončić.

“I think the pace was great,” Dončić said of the team’s play during his absence. “They were playing amazing. They beat some tough teams, and I was just happy to sit and watch and enjoy. Coming back, I just tried to adapt to that.”

The win showed Dallas’ resilience despite injuries to several key players, including Klay Thompson and Lively, whose statuses remain in flux ahead of Tuesday, with Naji Marshall already being ruled. However, Kyrie Irving will return from a one-game absence, given he’s no longer on the injury report.

Focused on the Task Ahead

The Mavericks will have a tough task in their final qualification game. The Grizzlies enter on a six-game winning streak, bolstered by a healthy Ja Morant and the resurgence of Marcus Smart in a bench role. He’s averaged 14.5 points over four games since returning, helping Memphis win each game by double digits.

“We gotta get it, you know what I mean? We kinda did a good job of doing it, getting the point differential up pretty high,” Grimes said. “But we got to go into this game with a completely different mindset. Don’t worry about this week. We had a good week. We’ll come in and try to just keep that flow of what we’ve been doing, keep building off it. But it’s $500K on the line. So we want that real bad for sure.”

What Happens If Dallas Loses?

While a win likely ensures their place in the knockout stage, a loss complicates the Mavericks’ path forward. If Dallas falls to 2-2, their hopes hinge on maintaining a favorable point differential and key results from other games.

Tiebreaker Importance: Dallas’ +41-point differential currently gives them a strong edge over Phoenix (+19) and Oklahoma City (+18). They could still secure the wild card even with a loss if their point differential remains superior.

Other Results: Dallas must lose its games to advance after a loss to Oklahoma City and Portland. Additionally, Denver must defeat the Clippers to ensure Dallas maintains an edge in the Group C standings.

Point Differential Margin: A close loss to Memphis—by fewer than 24 points or in overtime—would preserve Dallas’ substantial differential. Depending on their results, a blowout loss could see them overtaken by Phoenix or Oklahoma City.

As Washington put it, the team is determined to stay focused. “We’re trying to go to Vegas,” he said. “And we’re just excited about what we’re building here.”

Key Takeaway

The Mavericks have everything to play for on Tuesday night. A win likely locks in their wild-card spot, while a loss forces them into the uncertainty of tiebreakers. For Dallas, the safest path is clear: handle business against Memphis and avoid letting others decide their fate.

Tipoff is set for 7:30 p.m. CST at American Airlines Center.

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