Inside the Mavericks' Early Struggles: Clutch Failures, Slow Starts, Dončić’s Scoring Breakdown, and More

On Friday, a foul against Jusuf Nurkić with 0.1 seconds remaining in regulation led to a game-winning free throw instead of a chance to compete in overtime to avoid a loss. On Sunday, the Mavericks couldn’t contain Nikola Jokić for multiple putbacks, ultimately falling to the Denver Nuggets. Then, despite holding a late lead in Golden State, Stephen Curry’s explosive 12-point finish in clutch time spoiled Klay Thompson’s return. Each game occurred against formidable Western Conference contenders, proving Dallas has work to do to get back on track.

Injuries have also hampered the Mavericks early on. Dereck Lively II returned from a four-game absence caused by a right shoulder sprain. P.J. Washington has no timetable for his return from a knee injury but has progressed. Dante Exum will miss months due to a right wrist injury. Meanwhile, Dončić has fought through a left groin strain while logging heavy minutes, playing 41.0 minutes per game over the two games with the injury. Regardless, plenty can be improved from an execution standpoint with the available players.

Dallas Has Faltered in Clutch Games

One of Dallas’s biggest hurdles has been its struggles in clutch situations. The team is 1-5 in games where the score remains within five points in the last five minutes, placing them among the league’s lowest in late-game execution. Head coach Jason Kidd has emphasized the need to improve their ability to finish games.

“In the last two minutes, we have to get better,” Kidd stated after Tuesday’s narrow NBA Cup loss to Golden State. “In each of the last three games, we’ve turned it over and struggled with rebounds in crucial moments.”

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Despite outscoring opponents in the fourth quarter across this recent stretch, the Mavericks couldn’t close any of the three games. Costly turnovers continued to hurt them, including one by Thompson that set up Curry’s go-ahead floater. Luka Dončić also committed two key turnovers in Denver. Not having Lively available to play until the game in Golden State due to a shoulder injury left Dallas vulnerable on the boards, allowing Phoenix six offensive rebounds in the final period of Friday’s game.

Dončić acknowledged the need for improvement in clutch execution. The Mavericks’ 16.7% winning percentage in these situations ranks tied for last, with the New York Knicks entering Thursday’s NBA slate. Last season, Dallas ranked second with a 71.9% winning percentage in clutch games, trailing only the Los Angeles Lakers.

During the three-game stretch of consecutive clutch losses, Dončić’s shot hasn’t fallen nearly close to his usual rate. He’s shooting 28.6% from the floor and 20.0% from beyond the arc. As a team leader, Dončić took ownership of this result after going scoreless in the fourth quarter of the Mavericks’ loss against the Warriors.

“Last season, we were a very good clutch team,” Dončić admitted. “This year, it’s been different so far. It’s early, and it’s an 82-game season, but I need to be better down the stretch. We’ve had some close losses, and that’s on me.”

Klay Thompson remains optimistic about the team’s potential. After receiving a warm reception from Warriors fans at Chase Center, Thompson urged his teammates to view these early struggles as a learning experience.

“We’ve had four games this season that could’ve gone either way,” Thompson remarked. “Tonight stung, but I keep telling the guys, it’s early, and it’s better to go through this now than later. We have to stay the course.”

Slow Starts Have Been a Problem

If a team struggles to get off to a strong start, managing the game as it plays out becomes more challenging. They have to execute even better in pivotal moments, particularly clutch situations. In the Mavericks’ case, they’ve gotten off to underwhelming starts and have failed to close games. Despite being not only a net positive in every quarter aside from the opening period of games, while being genuinely impactful in the second and third periods, it hasn’t been enough.

Throughout Dončić’s tenure, he’s been the NBA’s leading first-quarter scorer, with the team relying on him to dominate the game to set the tone. This season, there’s been a clear emphasis on having him play off the ball more as the team gets into different actions, seemingly to lighten his physical toll during games. The goal is likely to have him fresher in the later stages of games, but Dallas hasn’t benefited from this yet. They rank 24th in offensive rating (104.6) during the first quarter of games this season compared to 8th last season (117.7). Instead, it was a lack of defensive execution that held the Mavericks back from being a top-10 team in the opening period of games in 2023-24. Now, they’ve executed in the bottom 10 in both categories with a -9.1 net rating, ranked 23rd in the league.

Before the Mavericks’ recent loss to the Warriors, head coach Jason Kidd discussed the adjustments his team is making this season, particularly in utilizing Luka Dončić off the ball more frequently. Kidd explained that this shift is possible because of his new roster’s different skill sets, including players like Kyrie Irving and Klay Thompson, who have also had to adapt to new roles since coming to Dallas. Kidd emphasized that while the team gets quality shots, they haven’t fallen, especially in the first quarter. The focus, he suggests, is on a long-term process, with the Mavericks willing to endure short-term growing pains to develop a successful formula.

“Looking at different places to have Luka off-ball, this team is different than in the past,” Kidd said. “When you look at the different players that have different skill sets—when you talk about Marshall (Naji Marshall) being able to handle, Ky (Kyrie Irving), and Klay (Thompson)—we’re able to move the pieces around here in the first 10 games just to see how it looks. But also, the first quarters have been our worst quarters, so maybe we need to put him in a position of having the ball more. But also, we haven’t shot the ball well in the first, so we’re just looking at those things.

“I think it’s easier for him off-ball because he doesn’t have to fight or carry the defender for 18 seconds, and these are things we’re trying to look at and get answers to,” Kidd continued. “He has to make the adjustment again with Klay, and Ky. Ky saw the adjustment, and it took some time, but the same thing happened with Klay. And so we will see how it goes. Again, he’s getting great looks. The team is getting great looks; we just haven’t made shots in the first quarter. If we can pour a couple more in instead of playing down by eight or 10 because we’re plus in the other three quarters…”

A significant factor in Dončić’s slower starts this season can be tied to his much lower efficiency on off-the-dribble jump shots. He’s converted at just a 28.7% clip from beyond the arc and has shot 33.8% from inside the arc, with 61.9% of his field goal attempts coming as off-the-dribble jumpers. That’s even higher than the 59.8% rate these shots accounted for his field goal attempts last season. In a typical game, if this shot doesn’t fall, he will likely struggle to get off to a strong start. His efficiency from inside 10 feet has been comparable to last season, as he’s shooting 62.2% compared to 63.8% in 2023-24. He’s just attempted 2.6% less of his shot attempts from this area.

Dončić admitted that it’s still an ongoing adjustment for him to play without the ball. The team had sprinkled in different approaches in the post, like having him flash or get a cross-screen for a post-up, play out of the corner in a Zoom action, station him on the Elbow in Horns, or even have him be a screener in guard-to-guard actions or double drag. Still, it was often as the game went on.

“Yeah, I’m still adjusting a little bit,” Dončić admitted. “Obviously, it’s way different this season. We got a lot of depth on the team. I’m still adjusting, but I’m getting better and better doing that stuff.”

When asked about any particular elements of playing off-ball that he’s adjusting to, Dončić mentioned: “Just overall. Without the ball,” he stated. “All of it.”

The Mavericks didn’t use this strategy as heavily against the Warriors as they had in some recent games, particularly in the final four minutes, when he frequently initiated the offense. In the short term, given the hole the team has begun to dig with early losses, perhaps finding the right initial balance will be instrumental.

Dončić’s Scoring is Due for Positive Regression

Much of what the Mavericks accomplish begins with Dončić since he’s a reigning five-time All-NBA First-Team talent. He can uplift a team to impressive heights if he’s firing on all cylinders. When he struggles to shoot, it’s challenging to overcome. The bar is set so high for him that often, last season, Kidd stressed how important it was for everyone “not to take him for granted” when discussing his performances in post-game press conferences.

So far, the NBA’s reigning scoring champion is averaging 28.5 points, 8.1 rebounds, and 8.0 assists, which is still impressive, but he’s shooting 41.9% from the floor and 32.1% from beyond the arc. That’s a simplistic way of viewing efficiency, so diving deeper for a more effective measure is important. His per-possession output is just 0.949 compared to 1.075 last season. With how much respect he commands from defenses, his performance climbing to prior levels after beginning the season with what he recently acknowledged as “rustiness” after missing all of the preseason will be significant.

A lot is tied to off-the-dribble shooting for Dončić, which his success, he often attributes to his legs. He’s shooting 28.7% when taking off-the-dribble threes, which accounts for 33.5% of his shot attempts. Last season, these attempts accounted for an even higher rate of his shots at 36.0% while converting at a 37.8% clip. However, his off-the-dribble shooting inside the arc hasn’t been nearly as efficient, with a more significant decline from last season—shooting 33.8% on 6.7 attempts per game, down by 12.6% while taking 0.5 more per game.

Despite his jump-shooting struggles, Dončić still shoots 62.2% from inside 10 feet and produces 1.3 points per possession (PPP) on layups. He’s even had an identical 22.3% rate of possessions at the rim when comparing this season to last. A lot is tied to jump-shooting positive regressing to prior levels.

Other Necessary Mavericks Improvement Areas

Outside of slow stars, closing games, and Dončić’s lower scoring efficiency than last season, some components could be improved in all phases. This team hasn’t reached a rhythm in many areas despite coming off an NBA Finals appearance while integrating new pieces.

For example, the Mavericks have experienced a severe regression in pick-and-roll execution to begin this season with an output of 0.821 points per possession (PPP) from the ball handler. Over half of the team’s possessions in this area belong to Dončić, and his output of 0.811 PPP has been well below the high bar he’s set for himself. A lot within the offense will resolve itself once he consistently punishes the defense, as we’re accustomed to seeing.

It doesn’t help that the Mavericks rank 21st in three-point percentage (34.6%) and free-throw percentage (76.5%). The Mavericks’ perimeter shooting woes cannot go without mentioning how Irving and Thompson are doing most of the heavy lifting. They’ve combined to shoot 68-of-155 (43.9%) from deep. The rest of the team has shot 70-of-244 (28.7%), but when you take out Dončić’s share, everyone else has shot 35-of-135 (25.9%). Additionally, while they have been highly efficient when getting to the rim, with an output of 1.344 points per possession (PPP), they are only doing so 29.1 times per game, the 23rd most in the league.

Remember that bad outcomes on offense can carry over into the defense. Despite ranking 3rd in turnover percentage (12.2%), plenty of long misses come with chances for the opposition to push the ball in transition. The Mavericks give up 17.3 fast-break points per game to their opponent, ranking 26th among all teams. Dallas is giving up 1.187 PPP in transition, which ranks in the 13th percentile.

The figures for transition defense are fascinating, considering the team ranks 4th in half-court defensive efficiency—allowing only 0.935 PPP. If the Mavs can tighten up in transition situations, it bodes well for positive defensive regression.

Another component of defense that can surely be improved is fouling. Especially at the very start of the season, the Mavs have struggled to keep their opponents off the free-throw line, giving up a 0.283 opponent free-throw attempt rate (24th) while committing 21.9 fouls per game (23rd).

There is also plenty of room for the Mavericks to fix in the rebound department. Their 25.9% offensive rebounding percentage ranks 24th in the league, while their opponent’s offensive rebounding percentage (30.5%) ranks 19th. However, despite this result, they outscore teams by 0.9 points per game in second-chance scoring. Still, it does indicate the potential for a more significant disparity in their advantage if improvement does occur.

It’s been a struggle to consistently find scoring production from the bench, with the Mavericks’ average of 24.0 points per game from bench players ranking 28th. In some instances, it’s been mostly a combination of Dončić, Irving, or Thompson putting up a solid volume while many other players on the team struggle to shoot and finish with a single-figure scoring outing. After losing against the Suns, Kidd stated in a post-game press that “our bench stinks.”

“Our bench stinks right now,” Kidd stated. “As deep as we are, we got to get someone to f—ing participate off the bench. Somebody has to join the party to help [Kyrie Irving] and Luka [Doncic]. And that’s just not happening right now. It’s a team; it’s not just Luka and Kai and Klay. Others have to participate. Played the whole f—ing team tonight, and we couldn’t find anybody.”

While it’s difficult to measure, the Mavericks’ recent losses have also occurred, with the opposing star having a significantly positive on-court scoring differential. At the same time, their team got blasted without them on the floor. This certainly happened with Nikola Jokić and Stephen Curry in the previous two losses. Jokić was a +13 in 38 minutes, while the Nuggets were outscored by 11 without him. Meanwhile, the Warriors outscored the Mavericks by 24 when Curry played but were outscored by a staggering 21 points when he did not. Across two matchups, Kevin Durant’s 76 minutes resulted in a 22-point advantage for Phoenix, while the team was outscored by nine in the 20 he didn’t play. This must improve for a contending team.

Looking Ahead

Against the Utah Jazz on Thursday night, the Mavericks will have a chance to produce a quality performance and end a three-game losing streak. Dallas has gone 2-5 in its last seven games and is sorely in need of getting back on track.

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